The China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as "China Telecom") released the "2010-2011 National Electricity Supply and Demand and Economic Operation Situation Analysis and Forecast Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). The "Report" analyzed and forecasted the national electricity supply and demand situation in 2011, pointing out that the shortage of electricity supply in some areas in the first quarter led to a serious shortage of power supply. Among them, the situation of coal-producing provinces such as Central China and Northwest China is even more bleak. It is expected that this situation will continue until the end of March. Coal shortage caused by power shortages, according to the "Report" predicts that in 2011 the national total electricity consumption reached about 4.7 trillion kwh, an increase of about 12%, somewhat lower than in 2010. At the same time, local coal supply and demand tensions will continue to occur in local areas and local time periods. Coal prices will remain at a high level overall, and the risk of further increases is high. In addition, due to uncertainties such as climate, incoming water, and coal supply, there are periods of tight supply and demand in some regions. Among them, power supply and demand in North China, East China and South China are tight; Central China's power supply and demand are generally balanced and time-consuming; the northeast and northwest power supply capacity is generally surplus, and some provinces in the northwest are structurally tight. It is estimated that the utilization hours of power generation equipment will be around 4,650 hours in the whole year, which is basically the same as that in 2010; the utilization hours of thermal power equipment is about 5,200 hours, which is 150 hours higher than the previous year. The "Report" also pointed out that the Ministry of Coal and Oil and Oil Transportation Ministerial Coordination Mechanism has been established throughout the country to negotiate major issues and take measures to ensure normal operation. On the whole, coal-fired oil and gas transportation guarantees are relatively stable, but the pressure and tension of railway and road transportation exist objectively, especially in the case of climate anomalies. It is expected that some provinces will have a tight supply of electricity due to the bottleneck of coal, which is more obvious in Central and Northwest China. This situation will likely continue to occur until the end of March. Coal-producing province in case of embarrassment for the current market problems "Report" pointed out, coal expert Chao-lin to the "First Financial Daily" said, the main coal-producing province of Henan in central China, but because it was the coal industry consolidation, resulting in some small The coal mine was transferred and shut down, so the shadow of insufficient capacity has been lingering. However, due to the recent resumption of production of small coal mines managed by state-owned coal enterprises, capacity release may occur after the first quarter, which will partially alleviate the problem of coal use in Henan. At the same time, Hubei Province faced a period of power shortage due to the dry season. But why is the northwest region, which is also the main producing area of ​​coal, encounter the shortage of coal and electricity? In an interview with this newspaper, Director Xue of the China Electricity Council's Statistics Department pointed out that this highlights the embarrassment encountered by the main coal producing areas in the northwest in the systemic contradiction of “market coal and planned electricityâ€. Taking the northwestern coal province of Shaanxi as an example, she pointed out that Shaanxi has a large coal output, so the coal price is low. Today, with the coal market becoming more market-oriented, its “high quality and low price†coal has already been exported to the southeast coast and refused. Perform the province's thermal coal contract. As a result, it has led to the dilemma of coal-producing provinces and the lack of coal and electricity. Director Xue said that the annual regulation and control of the coal-producing and transportation needs of the National Development and Reform Commission is mainly aimed at the eastern provinces, while the control of the large coal-producing provinces in the central and western regions is weak, mainly relying on local digestion and blending in the province, thus forming coal for use. Electric pressure, especially in Shaanxi and Shanxi. On the other hand, in recent years, power companies have been unable to withstand the frequent increase in coal prices and the increase in rigid costs caused by the lag in electricity price adjustments, resulting in serious losses in the thermal power industry. The above-mentioned coal-producing provinces are particularly under pressure. Li Chaolin pointed out that domestic coal prices have maintained a downward trend since November last year. It is expected that coal prices will fall further due to the decrease in electricity demand in the first quarter of this year, which will partially alleviate the concerns of high-coal coal prices in power plants in Central and Northwest China.
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