On July 18, the Ministry of Commerce issued preliminary anti-dumping results for the import of polysilicon from the United States and South Korea, but did not bring much joy to the domestic polysilicon industry. The above-mentioned management said that from the preliminary ruling, the temporary anti-dumping margin rate imposed on each importer, the Korean OCI, which accounts for 30% of the imported polysilicon, is only subject to a tax rate of 2.4%. This anti-dumping force is limited. China has always imported the largest amount of polysilicon from the EU, but the imported polysilicon manufacturers from the EU, especially Germany, are not on the list of anti-dumping targets, and the degree of profit for China's polysilicon producers may be limited.
“Before we expect the Ministry of Commerce to include EU polysilicon manufacturers in the anti-dumping list in August, but after the China-European PV negotiations “shake and talkâ€, anti-dumping against EU polysilicon manufacturers may not appear.†The person said that the future domestic polysilicon industry The first choice is to continue the long process of de-capacity, and the second is to intensify competition in the limited demand market released downstream.
The reporter was informed that the demand for domestic polysilicon market is expected to be around 80,000 tons this year, but the current effective capacity of domestic enterprises exceeds 140,000 tons. Wang Haisheng analyzed that even if the market share of imported polysilicon is not considered, the situation of oversupply of polysilicon in the domestic market will remain in the long term. After the dust of the Sino-European PV trade dispute has been settled, China's polysilicon “double-reverseâ€, which is closely related to it, may be exhausted. In the situation where market supply and demand are still unbalanced, the domestic polysilicon industry may face a new round of "price war."
Industry insiders reminded that in the context of no fundamental changes in overcapacity, the domestic PV industry will be in an accelerated reshuffle and industry adjustment stage for a long period of time. Ren Haoning, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, believes that domestic demand is no longer able to digest China's PV production capacity. In the next 10-20 years, capacity demand will not change much, but the overall production capacity will be reduced, and eventually maintain a relatively balanced state. The future market structure will be that the number of upstream polysilicon enterprises will be greatly reduced, forming 5-6 polysilicon groups, and small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated; the middle reaches will form 4-5 battery component groups; and downstream will have a relatively large number of photovoltaic power station construction, design and Operating the company.
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