As the first leading base in China, the construction results of Datong's leading base have been widely evaluated in the industry as a remarkable point. It is considered that it has adopted the “leaders†product through competitive distribution projects, which has played a leading role in the trend of product efficiency. When the industry began to summarize the achievements and experience of the Datong base, one piece of data was somewhat surprising: after statistics, the total installed capacity of Datong base components was 1016MW, but the number of single crystal installations that did not occupy the market dominant position reached 609MW. , accounting for 60% of the total installed capacity. Under the leading role of the leading base, will the single crystal become the king of the market and become synonymous with the leader in the future?
The first leading base single crystal installation share reached 60%
Although since the beginning of last year, especially this year, the single crystal has returned to the dominant position, but in fact the market is still dominated by polycrystalline. According to Energytrend, the share of polycrystalline components in the global PV market has gradually increased to over 50%, more than 60% in 2014 and as much as 76% in 2015. In contrast, the share of monocrystalline components has gradually dropped to about 30%, and in 2015 it was less than 20%.
Therefore, it is a bit surprising that the single crystal of the first installation base of the installation unit is 60%. However, in the visit to the Datong Front Runner Base project, the single crystal components that are everywhere can also confirm the share of the single crystal in the front runner project.
According to the reporter's understanding, Datong's "leaders" have identified more than 10 component suppliers, of which JA Solar's solar shipments reached 420MW, ranking first, with a supply of 303MW of monocrystalline modules. In addition, the finalists of the single crystal are Yingli, Trina Solar and GCL. According to the relevant person in charge of Jingao, Jingao’s total intention component order (single crystal and polycrystalline sum) once reached 600MW, but due to the hot global PV market and the “6 ̇ 30†node in China, the rush to install The demand for first-line components is in short supply. In addition, the company rarely uses OEM to process components. The high-efficiency components also need to supply overseas markets such as Japan and Europe. Therefore, the production capacity is limited and some orders are lost.
As for whether the monocrystalline module will still dominate the mainstream in this year's leading base, an industry insider told reporters: "Because this year's leading base reached 5.5 GW scale, it will bring about a substantial increase in demand for efficient products. The first leading base product is highly efficient. Under the guidance of this year, this year's leading base single crystal may still account for a large share. On the other hand, due to the delay in the supply of high-efficiency components of the first leading base, some owners have begun to consider the selection of multiple components this year. To ease the pressure on individual suppliers, and because there are not many high-efficiency single crystal suppliers that can achieve mass production, the single crystal can continue to occupy a large share, and it depends on the final situation."
Why is the single crystal favored at the Datong base?
In the context of polycrystalline still dominate the market, why do monocrystalline components have unique advantages in the front runner program? Why are you getting hotter?
According to one analysis, according to the lead base regulations, the conversion efficiency of polycrystalline components needs to be 16.5%, and the single crystal conversion efficiency is 17% or more. According to the actual situation of the current single crystal module, 80% of the single crystal manufacturers can meet this conversion requirement; also some analysts say that there are a large number of high-efficiency new technology products in the single crystal module, and the bright spots of polycrystals Not much. Taking Jingao Solar as an example, it supplied 150MW of PERCIUM high-efficiency single crystal module (PERC technology) in the front runner program. Yingli supplied 50MW N-type double-glass and double-sided power generation components, totaling 200MW. The polycrystalline high-efficiency new technology products only have JAG's 17MW Runxiu components (black silicon technology) and day-care 11MW MWT technology components, totaling only 28MW. In October 2013, Jingao launched the PERCIUM component, which was mass-produced in June 2014. It is one of the first companies in the world to launch and mass-produce PERC technology products. Yingli introduced N-type single crystal components at the end of 2011.
According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, PERC battery capacity will grow rapidly in the second half of this year. Since PERC only needs to add two processes, the cost of technical transformation is low (the cost per line increases does not exceed US$6 million), and the production cost increases less (0.04 USD/W), and the efficiency is significantly improved. In addition to Taiwanese manufacturers, China's Jingao, Artes, Jingke, Trina, Germany Solarworld, South Korea's HanwhaQCELLS and so on have increased PERC capacity, 2016 PERC total capacity is expected to reach 13.3GW (up 75%).
Since polycrystalline PERC needs to be matched with black silicon technology to achieve the best power generation efficiency, in contrast, single crystal PERC is more efficient and cost-effective, so the market outlook is very promising.
Single crystal or polycrystalline? Not a zero-sum game
Since the beginning of this year, all sectors of the industry chain have increased the expansion of single crystal production capacity. Major battery component manufacturers such as Trina, Artes, Jingke, Jingao, Hanwha, etc. have significantly changed the polycrystalline battery line to single crystal. The battery line is planned and under implementation; in late July, the cooperation between Zhongsheng Optoelectronics and Longji Co., Ltd. has created a second component manufacturer specializing in single crystal products; even the relatively low-key Jingao has announced that the company has been this year. In mid-July, the cumulative shipment of single crystal products reached 7 GW, which is the real “Single Crystal Emperorâ€. According to the relevant person in charge of Jingao, Jingao is one of the earliest companies in the world to develop single crystal PERC technology, and has also applied the announced high conversion efficiency to the actual production line.
According to relevant statistics, the market share of single crystal in China has increased from less than 5% in the previous period to 15% in 2015, and it is expected to challenge the target of 25%-30% in 2016.
It is worth noting that although single crystal has become a hot spot of attention, some technical controversies on polycrystalline and single crystals have never stopped.
Although the single-crystal efficiency is slightly higher under the premise of consistent power generation of components, it will save costs for the owner. However, due to the continuous improvement of polycrystalline components and batteries and silicon wafer technology, the total system cost after the polycrystalline price continues to decline. It will also drop. It is understood that polycrystalline enterprises will adopt diamond wire slicing technology as soon as possible to reduce the cost of slicing; develop polycrystalline silicon wafers suitable for PERC battery technology, and larger ingots and continuous feeding will further reduce the cost of silicon wafers.
"The competition between single crystal and polycrystalline is not a zero-sum game. The mutual promotion of technology will help the entire photovoltaic industry to achieve parity online earlier." The industry insiders said.
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